The author is a SEBI Registered Research Analyst (INH000004796) and a NISM certificate holder in Equity Derivatives Market. The certification is provided by National Institute of Securities Markets.

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Saturday, August 27, 2016

A trading system which mostly works!!

The above is the Relinfra 10 mins chart. The system which I found works in most cases is that of divergence between Price and indicators. Here the indicators which I have used is the RSI and MACD, The EMAs on the charts which I have mentioned are the 8 and 21 EMAs.

The strategy is simple: Look for divergence between Price and indicator. In this case price is making higher high but the indicator is not (as shown in lower pane). This set up should alert us that the price rise may be false or halting. Then wait patiently and short on the MACD cross with recent top as Stop Loss. More conservative traders can wait for the cross of EMAs. Here I am using EMAs to show me the direction of the trend (if any) and not as a buy or sell signal. I prefer use of price action and indicator to take action. In price action, here, there was a formation of a H&S pattern and there is divergence and also there is a crossover in the MACD pane.
Once in the trade, one can ride the position with 21 EMA as a trailing SL.

One can tweak this method to suit personal trading style but this can form a simple template to work with.
I have not put the Volume pane, but it has to be there.

Couple of examples:

SBI- 1 hour chart!!

Asian paints- 15 Mins chart!!